The Gamblers Fallacy
- Filed under: Casinos
- Date: Jul 30,2010
There is a certain idea that plagues many gamblers, whether they are new to online roulette or online roulette veterans. This idea single handedly chews through the bankrolls of gamblers and online roulette players across the world, whether they are good or bad, young or old.
The one thing that I’m talking about is known as The Gambler’s Fallacy. The Gambler’s Fallacy has been tricking players into making bad bets for centuries, possibly longer than that. If you take your money seriously you must be constantly vigilant against The Gambler’s Fallacy.
To give you a quick idea of what The Gambler’s Fallacy is imagine that the ball of a roulette wheel has landed on odds several times in a row. Somebody suffering from The Gambler’s Fallacy would then begin betting on evens thinking that the ball is now more likely to land on evens because it has landed on odd so many times already.
The table does not have a memory, and it doesn’t matter what the past spins resulted in. Many people try to use past spins as an indicator for future spins when in reality this does nothing at all. Past spins have no bearing on what future outcomes will be.
The Gambler’s Fallacy is an easy thing to fall for. One of the reasons it is so appealing is that on the surface it looks like the math would suggest that there is no fallacy. If one simply looks at one set of odds it makes The Gambler’s Fallacy an easy thing to fall prey to.
Most people look at the math and then make wrong conclusions from the brief overview of the odds. This would make it look like there is no Gambler’s Fallacy. But I will show you where they go wrong, and how to look at the odds properly.
For this experiment we need to pretend that there is no zero on the online roulette table, it simply makes the math easier. Picture the ball landing on an even number, the odds of this happening are 50%. Now picture the ball landing on an even number twice in a row, the odds of this happening are less than 50%. This is what makes it look like the ball is more likely to land odd after going even. However if you do the math you will find that the ball going even and then even again is just as likely to happen as the ball going even and then odds.
Now that you know that The Gambler’s Fallacy will steer you the wrong way you can now improve your online roulette play. There’s no reason to let an idea suck away funds from your bankroll. Your bankroll should be for online roulette, not for feeding a gambling horror.
It doesn’t matter what strategy you play with, it’s important that you play Online Roulette at the best casinos. The best casinos are the ones with the fast payment times, one of them is Bet365 Casino
