The Money Pot
- Filed under: General
- Date: Jul 3,2008
Everyone is looking for that perfect system that will give them the edge. Everyone hears about that ‘player’ who stole millions from the casino with his unbeatable system, and chances are you’ve had a few of ‘those’ e-mails that tell you about this magical system that will double your winnings and let you turn gambling from a hobby into a career.
We’re a professional site, and we actually receive countless invitations from these unscrupulous individuals to post links about systems that don’t work.
Today; following on from our previous post we are going to take a little look as to WHY the martingale and other flat-betting systems don’t always work.
Let’s begin:
Imagine we are playing at a roulette table, the maximum bet is $100. You are betting on the ball landing in a red pocket. We are going to carry on from yesterdays run of betting. Assume it is the same table and we haven’t stopped since bet one.
Bet 1 : red $1 = win {+1}
Bet 2 : red $1 = win {+2}
Bet 3 : red $1 = loose {+1}
Bet 4 : red $2 = loose {-1}
Bet 5 : red $4 = win {+3}
Bet 6 : red $1 = win {+4}
Bet 7 : red $2 = lose {+2}
Bet 8 : red $4 = lose {-2}
Bet 9 : red $8 = lose {-10}
Bet 10 : red $16 = win{+6}
Bet 11 : red $1 = lose {+5}
Bet 12 : red $2 = lose {+3}
Bet 13 : red $4 = lose {-1}
Bet 14 : red $8 = lose {-9}
Bet 15 : red $16 = lose {-25}
Bet 16 : red $32 = lose {-57}
Bet 17 : red $64 = lose {-121}
Bet 18 : red $128 = lose {system dead}
Notice – we’re now screwed. I’ve been playing casino games a long time, and a 8 or 9 run loss is not unimaginable. It can and does happen especially online. When we can realistically predict numbers, I’ll be the first to tell you. But – martingale is a system doomed to failure, unless you do one thing.
Match it with a stop-loss.
Not just any old stop-loss, we need a trailing stop-loss so if we do profit, our stop-loss takes this into account. So let’s re run the numbers again, with a stop-loss of $-20. We end up coming out at bet 14 with a loss of $9 dollars. But lets add into this a rule that says 3 wins and we quit - we come out with +4 dollars.
One last thing to consider is matching it in with what I call a risk-profit strategy. This means we gamble until we have sufficient profit to use as a main stake. Then its no-risk gambling, but getting the wins to secure the amount needed is not easy.
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